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　　8月份CPI達(dá)到2%，而一年期定期存款利率在經(jīng)過過去一年央行的連續(xù)下調(diào)后，目前已降到1.75%，至此實(shí)際利率（定期存款利率減去CPI）為-0.25%。這意味著時(shí)隔5年后我國再次進(jìn)入實(shí)際負(fù)利率時(shí)代。利率是經(jīng)濟(jì)金融體系的核心指標(biāo)。在利率市場化快速推進(jìn)的過程中，實(shí)際負(fù)利率凸顯宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力較大以及央行政策操作的艱難。



　　1990年以來，我國實(shí)際負(fù)利率時(shí)期有四段。從形成機(jī)制上來講，都是由于物資短缺或者經(jīng)濟(jì)過熱引發(fā)通脹快速攀升到存款利率以上形成的，隨著央行的緊縮貨幣政策逐步實(shí)施，實(shí)際利率都很快轉(zhuǎn)正。



　　相比之下，本次負(fù)利率有所不同。盡管2014年底開始央行**降息降準(zhǔn)，利率一路下行，但由于人口紅利逐漸消退后的勞動(dòng)力成本不斷上升，正驅(qū)動(dòng)通貨膨脹率單邊緩慢上行，以至于存款利率再度低于通貨膨脹率。



　　本次實(shí)際負(fù)利率發(fā)生在宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)性與周期性共同主導(dǎo)的趨勢性下行階段。近年來實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)去產(chǎn)能、去杠桿的任務(wù)較為艱巨，但實(shí)際上企業(yè)部門整體杠桿率卻不降反升，由此形成兩個(gè)關(guān)聯(lián)的重要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，即債務(wù)規(guī)模過大、社會(huì)融資成本過高。到2015年二季度為止，非金融業(yè)上市公司加權(quán)平均ROIC（全****率，是度量企業(yè)經(jīng)營效率最重要的指標(biāo)）已經(jīng)低于5%，而加權(quán)平均融資成本在6%附近。

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